Tuesday, December 9

Bimodal Twilight

I have not read, nor do I plan to read any of the Twilight books. I have not seen, nor do I plan to see any of the Twilight movies. If you love the books, Alex can provide you with all you could ever want on that topic. For the rest of us, I will not fan the flames by providing any snide remarks on the topic, nor poking fun at the story in any way.

My real purpose in bringing this up is to talk about normal distributions. Thrilling topic, isn't it? You're all quivering with anticipation I'm sure. (Or are you quivering because of my luminous marble-like pasty white complexion?)If we were to go measure something like . . . say . . . the mass of all your T-shirts, what would we expect to find? Logic would tell us that they'll weigh roughly the same, but there will be some variation. Some will be worn out and thin, and weigh less. Others will be a size to large, meaning more fabric (plus, still in mint condition because you don't want to wear a big ol' T-shirt) so they'll weigh more. If we were to graph the results, we would likely see a 'normal' distribution. We call this 'normal' because so much data comes out looking like this. The size of leaves on a tree. The height of 2 year-olds. The distance you can throw a baseball. Anything where there is an expected value, and then some events that fall a little beyond or a little short of that.
Now, many things are not 'normal'. If we were to expand our measurement to the weight of all your shirts, we might find it to be 'bimodal'. (Remember, the 'mode' of a data set is the single value that is most common. To be bimodal means there are two different values which are both significant maxiumums (though one will still likely be larger).) In the case of the shirts, we would expect that T-shirts are light, but that your vast collection of sweaters would introduce another graphical hump. Lots of things are also bimodal, typically things that depend on some factor with two possible outcomes that influnces the data. The weight of a group of people, for example. We would expect to see a peak where many of the women fall, and then a separate peak higher up for the men.Ok, that was all warm-up for what I really wanted to get at. What would we expect for a movie rating distribution? At first thought, maybe a normal distribution. Imagine seeing a movie with a very large group of friends and discussing it afterwards. You might expect that many people would rate it 'ok' with a few that liked it more, or a few that liked it less. If that's what actually happened, then maybe the movie you saw was 'I Am Legend'.

But when you think about it, this isn't really typical of peoples resonses. Usually a bunch of people think a movie is 'good' or 'ok' but there are a few who really, really love it. Such is the case with 'Ice Princess' which is nicely bimodal.
Or maybe you've seen a movie where many of the people thought it was ok, but some of them really liked it, while others really hated it. That might be 'Four Christmases'. (What is this? Trimodal?)But, I think it is really interesting (and likely unique) to find a movie with no middle ground. You either love it or hate it. And that, is Twilight. I think what we have here is the data from all the women who went to go see it, as well as the results from their fathers/boyfriends/husbands. ;)
All movie data sets came from imdb.com

12 comments:

Clark said...

I'm putting the over/under for people that read this whole post at 4.

If you read the whole thing (before reading this comment) feel free to make yourself known.

Ben said...

Sorry bro, I tried, but couldn't do it. I did, however, take joy in the stats on Twilight. From the looks on the faces of all the other poor fools in the theater with me, I would say that that is accurate (and a bit of common sense).

Ben said...

I finished the whole thing before reading the comments. And I'm thinking take the over from who I know that reads your blog. Brett will read it all. Adam Lowe seems the type to read it all. So I only need one more not to come out on top.

I wonder if you were to take enough of the distributions and compute the distribution in each category if you wouldn't find that the variance is normally distributed as well.

Ben (obviously the geekier one)

Anonymous said...

I read the post in its entirety, hanging on every word...only to be put off by the first post which insulted my intellect.

Shanny said...

Hey, I read the whole thing. And I liked it! I think it helped that you had graphs. And that I'm your wife, and I make it a point to read almost all your blog posts. (I pass on the sports ones)

Adam Lowe said...

Read it and linked to it.

Politician approval ratings would probably be another good source for bimodality.

Clark said...

So I count that we're up to 4 people who read the whole thing so far, 5 if you count Brett who I believe did read it (he brought up the question of how many would read the whole thing which prompted my comment). Ben and Shannon I counted on. I didn't think of Adam, though I should have. Anonymous caught me off guard, unless that's Tyler, which I don't think is likely. Apparently I've underestimated my readership once again.

To Anonymous: assuming it was the first comment not post which you were referring to as being insulting to your intellect, I certainly didn't mean it to be insulting. It was more a statement as to the content of my blog. I don't expect that many people are really going to be interested by normal and bimodal distributions. In the event that you really went back and read my first post (over 2 years ago) how could that be insulting? Again, it is mostly a commentary on my own strange nature.

Alex said...

I made it through the whole post,and I totally got it, hooray! Very interesting! If only all my HS/college math problems had been about Twilight or Harry Potter or something else I love... I would have gotten better grades!

Melissa said...

I read the whole thing up front. And I just read through all of the comments! Remember, one of your sisters is a bit of a math nerd too.

Anonymous said...

Dude, you've got to pay out.

There may also be something else at work here: the vote distribution could reflect participation bias--only people who really liked the movie or who were really dissapointed/annoyed by it are motivated enough to go and cast a vote--driving up extremes. Not saying this is the case, but it's another explanation.

BMI is bimodal because it over emphasizes height (squares it), ignores fitness, and doesn't deliniate between benign (peripheral) body fat and risky body fat (central). A better measurment of fat relating to healthiness may not be distributed for men and women the same way as BMI, which is a socially contructed (i.e., bullshit) measurement.

Suzanne said...

Elliott and I both read it. Congratulations on introducing Elliott to Snide Remarks.

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