So here are some (very) early BCS rankings! For those who can't wait until week 6 or so when the first official rankings come out, someone over at bcsguru.com has been nice enough to compile early results. They're not official, as the Harris Poll doesn't vote yet, and some of the computers haven't released results either. But where an offical piece is not available, the compiler has done a good job of having a reasonable replacement for it.
Item to remember: If it's hard for humans to make sense of who is good and who stinks after just 2 or 3 games, it's even harder for a computer, resulting in Nebraska being ranked #1 by one of the computers.
Item to remember #2: Computers are not allowed to factor in margin of victory. The idea is that this keeps coaches from running up the score to impress a computer. So, the computers don't know that USC beat OSU by 32 points.
Finally, it looks clear that 3 MWC teams control their own destiny as far as the BCS. BYU, Utah and TCU should each make it, provided they go undefeated. (TCU still has to face Oklahoma in Norman.) A reminder that a top 12 finish guarentees a BCS spot, and a top 16 finish also does, provided you finish ahead of a BCS conference champ. However, there is no way that a second team can also guarentee themselves a spot. Basically, an undefeated ECU team could finish 8th, but if an undefeated MWC team finishes 7th, they're likely going to miss out.
Of course, I could point out that there are 10 BCS spots, 6 of which are promised to conference champs. The SEC and Big 12 look like good candidates to get 2 teams into BCS bowls, but the Pac-10 looks like USC and a bunch of crud, the Big 10 is questionable, and the Big East and ACC are having serious problems this year. Could it really be the year that 2 teams bust the BCS? Probably not.
4 comments:
Remember that no league can get three teams in so if the Big 12 and SEC fill enough top spots you can get a long way down the list. I still agree the odds are low.
Well, it all depends.
Is this a year like last year where the most "deserving" teams for the championship were a 2-loss LSU team and a 1-loss perennially overrated Ohio State team?
Or is this 2004 when 4 teams went undefeated up until the bowls?
I really think it will depend on how many other teams lose. The odds of it happening are slim, but two schools with large fan bases were knocking on the door (other than BYU though, I don't know of a non-cartel team with a nationwide fan base) I think it would be very possible. I just don't know who the second team would be.
It's less about how many and more about distribution.
So, based on the polls and not the actual BCS numbers:
Take the PAC-10. If Oregon were to lose to BSU today (pretty long odds), the PAC-10 would almost be guaranteed to only get in one team.
In the top 16, you've got SEC: Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida. (As usual their OOC play doesn't justify this.)
In the Big12 you've got, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech. (And at 19 Kansas).
The Big East will only have one team in the top 25 come Monday. I think it's a stretch to believe they will stay there, but it's irrelevant since the top team will get in anyway.
The Big10, is in at 8,13,16, and 22. Having seen a few of these games, I really think the Big10 could be a one bid conference this year.
The mighty ACC is in at 18, 22, and 24.
So how does that play out.
SEC: 2. This won't change.
Big12: 2. Won't change.
Pac10: 1 or 2. Probably just one.
Big10: 1. Could be two.
ACC: 1. Probably a team rated ~15.
BigEast: 1. If USF doesn't win out the conference champ here might not even be ranked.
That's 8 teams for sure.
If things were right now, BYU automatically qualifies.
Oregon is the only remaining eligible team.
Now, if Oregon falls out of the top 14 then ECU becomes eligible and Oregon still gets picked. If Oregon falls out of the top 18, ECU is the only extra eligible team.
Oregon
Update, so Oregon and ECU lose...
Utah will probably move up to 18 and will be in the position that would get the 10th spot if the picks were Monday.
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