Wednesday, January 16

Boring NFL

Adam asks: "How is the NFL boring? There have been some awesome games this year. And the Patriots are always doing something tricky."

I wanted to respond where all could see it, and I'll go straight for the big guns. The NFL is boring, because no one scores. The Pats broke pretty much every significant scoring record in the NFL this season, and averaged 36.8 points/game. On the college side, they were outscored by Hawaii, Kansas, Florida, Boise St., Oklahoma, Tulsa, Texas Tech, Missouri, West Virginia, Navy, LSU, Oregon, Arkansas and Texas. That's 14 teams out of 119 (11.7%) that outscored the record setting Pats. Excluding New England, the highest scoring NFL team was the Cowboys at 28.4 points per game. That would place them behind 53 NCAA teams. 6.25% of NFL teams score 28.4 points per game, 44.5% of college teams do. Finally, 34.3% of NFL teams score under 20 points per game (11/32) compared to 12.6% of NCAA teams (15/119). Scoring makes interesting games! Games with more scoring naturally have less punting, and fewer 3-and-outs. Those are boring.

College teams go for it on 4th down more often. Only 3 NFL teams this year attempted 1.5 4th down conversions per game. 76 NCAA teams did the same. 40% of NFL teams succeeded more than half the time. 48% of NCAA teams did. So they're going for it more often, and succeeding more often! That's exciting football.

One final stat: 1 team in the NFL (the freak show Pats) moved the ball more than 375 yards per game. 74 college teams matched that.

College has more teams, and therefore more games, increasing the likelihood that there is at least 1 or 2 interesting games any given weekend. Some college teams run the spread, some teams run the option. Some teams (Texas Tech and Hawaii) don't seem to know what a running back even is. That's exciting!

Maybe you want to argue the NFL has better defense or something else, and that's alright if that's what tickles your fancy. But to me, it's boring.

14 comments:

Suzanne said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Suzanne said...

But if you were watching football on Saturday night, you would have seen the Pats do a textbook-perfect fake of the Statue of Liberty play for a touchdown. Yes, that's right, they faked a fake play. How is that not exciting?

Besides, you shouldn't complain about low-scoring games because I happen to know that you will watch professional pool and bowling on TV.

Clark said...

Ok, so the Pats did something exciting. I suppose I should amend my statement that the NFL is much more boring than NCAA football. At best, the NFL has 1 exciting team and 31 boring teams.

As to pool and bowling, yes I have been known to watch. But, I haven't watched nearly as much of those as I have watched football, so they haven't become as repetitive. Besides, the last pool I watched on TV was speed pool, which is absolutely riveting.

Also, you won't find me watching pool or bowling instead of football. If the NFL would schedule their season through the summer when they only have to compete with baseball, I'd probably watch more. And if they would play fewer games on Sunday, I'd watch even more.

Adam Lowe said...

Well, I like to watch both, so I won't argue.

One thing I like about the NFL over college is it's easier for a casual sports fan like myself to become familiar with the players. It's fun to watch Favre because he's been playing for years. Every time I watch Brady and Manning, I remember their appearances on SNL, that kind of thing.

It's a good thing that the games themselves are more exciting in college, because I don't really know who any of the players are, outside of the QBs for BYU and Texas, maybe. And there are so many teams it's hard to keep track of who's supposed to be good.

tysqui said...

I like the NFL and watch as much of it as I can. It must not be boring to many, because 9 of the top 10 most watched sporting events in 2007 were NFL games (and the other was game 4 of the World Series). As for the NFL teams not scoring as much, take a look at the number of plays per game in college compared to the NFL. NFL games are shorter, averaging 3 hours 6 minutes, quite a bit shorter than televised college games (all NFL games are televised) - and quicker, faster paced games tend to be more exciting to many people. Once you normalize both (because of different clock rules), then you'll see that, yes college teams do score more, but it's not nearly as big of difference as you're making it out to be.

Clark said...

Yes, college games have more plays, which should allow for more scoring. To the numbers, Batman!

The Pats (best offense ever) scored 0.568 points per offensive play this year. Hawaii (top offense but not record breaking) scored 0.599 points per play. That's 5% better than the most record breakingest team ever.

What if this season didn't have the wonder Pats? #2 in the league was Dallas score 0.479 pts/play. The corresponding NCAA team would be the 7th highest scoring Texas Tech team which scored 0.527 pts/play. So that's a 9% edge to the NCAA. Even adjusting for the higher number of plays, the NCAA still outscores the NFL.

Oh, another reason NCAA is better: no one shuts down their team for the last week or two of the season.

Also: No TO.

Suzanne said...

I like football because it's a sport that I can keep up with. On a game level, I can keep up with anything (Except maybe hockey. I have trouble following the puck. Oh, and caring.) but as a sport, it is easy to keep up with football.

Basketball teams play about every other day, which means there are several games on every day. I don't have that kind of time. Ditto for baseball, which also has the fatal flaw of being 90% standing around. Basketball seasons are also, what, 14 months long?

So I like football. Each team plays once a week, and the games are at the same times every week. I can do that.

Adam Lowe said...

"Oh, and caring."

Hilarious.

I've made honest efforts to get into hockey several times during my career as a sports fan, and it just never took. Same with soccer.

Clark, do you think the fact that you grew up without a local pro team has anything to do with your disdain for the NFL? Maybe if things had been different, you'd be singing a different tune.

(Well, maybe the same tune, but different words. "...Sloan and Malone-y...") :)

Anonymous said...

Oh geez. Clark this is what drives people crazy about you. Nobody's arguing that ncaa teams don't score more points than the nfl (but that's the only argument youre making). suzanne, adam lowe and tysqui are all simply giving you a few reasons why they like the NFL. youre the only person that is taking offense like they are trying to convince you the nfl is better. When in fact youre the person trying to convince everybody else that college football is better. you can be so ridiculous.

W.L.Platt said...

I am also sad to see the end of college ball for the year - but I have to say the Charger/Colt game last Sunday was anything but boring. And I sincerely hope this Sunday's game is not boring. In fact, I hope the Pat's don't show up because they are afraid they will be so bored. I also hope Rivers and LT are well and pumped by all the people who are disappointed in the apparent miss-match. It would be great to topple the mighty Pat's with our little slingshot of a team. We can always dream, right?

Clark said...

For my pal Sandy,

My arguements for the NFL being more boring has thus far included
1. Less scoring
2. More punting/Less 4th down attempts
3. More 3-and-outs
4. Less offense
5. Less variety of offensive schemes
6. Fewer teams leading to fewer interesting games
7. Teams which shut it down for the last 2 weeks of the regular season
8. More people named Terrell Owens

Now, I know I'm doing just what my Sandy Pal dislikes, which is beating this to a bloody pulp, but I have not taken offense to anyones comments, and I am not trying to convince anybody. I am trying to clearly explain and support the reasons that it is my opinion that NFL football is more boring than NCAA football.

I agree that the NFL can produce both interesting plays (Suzanne's reference to the Pats) and interesting games (Wendy). I'm sure that if I had a home team to root for I might enjoy the NFL more (Adam) though I like Florida Gator games more than Tampa Bay Bucs games.

Adam Lowe said...

Did you see TO start to cry in his press conference? "It's not fair...it's not fair..."

They keep playing it on the radio down here, and it's already spawned a bunch of YouTube parodies.

Only in the NFL, baby.

Ben said...

I'm going to agree with Adam here.
The NCAA has 1 major problem:

No legitimate championship

In the NFL you don't have 100+ teams and politics playing as to who is #1. Defense is better which will account for less "variety" and less scoring (e.g. You can't do the option in the NFL). You would get creamed.

Shanny said...

I think it's all boring. Except like the last 4 minutes of the 4th quarter. I can handle that. :)